trends: July 2009 Archives

Kind of nice, isn't it: Timely Demise has had almost nothing to say for a week.

Could it be "the beginning of the end of the recession?" The slow summer news cycle? Executives on vacation?

This writer believes it has more to do with the economy taking a well-deserved summertime nap than any macro-level trends--just because the stock market bounced doesn't mean America still isn't facing a workforce that's 20% underemployed.

In any case, Timely Demise owns a sister website that will launch once good news starts to eclipse bad. And if that takes awhile, TD will be sure to note it. Keep your tips and thoughts coming.

Whatever may happen, this blog is content to not have much to say. The break, while not a compelling read, is refreshing. We'll see what happens next week.

Consumers may be skittish with their spending of late, but that's not stopping retailers from keeping on the keepin' on. According to a report from RBC Capital Markets on Forbes.com, the retail business may be stabilizing. Analyst Rich Moore's July prediction of 64,925 new store openings in the next two years is a mere .02% below his May announcement of 65,000. That's a surprisingly positive sign when compared to his January prediction of 69,000 store openings, a January-to-May drop of 5.9%.

In New York City, storefronts in Manhattan have hit their highest vacancy rates since 2001. Citywide, the vacancies stand at 12.4 percent; on some important shopping lanes, like tony Madison Avenue, the rate is more than 15%. (This author rode up Madison Avenue in a cab recently and spotted more than one empty storefront per block.)

Experts estimate rents may fall as much as 23% by the end of next year. Which, while bad for real estate companies, presents a bargain opportunity for retailers ready to capitalize toward the end of the recession.

As has been noted here on and off, retailers are focusing on their core brands in order to maximize profitability in the recession. Reuters covers this trend with an overview of many brands finding this new focus: Abercrombie, Talbots, Finish Line and others have sold or closed brands to strengthen their main offerings.

Wisely, the Reuters article notes that this may lead to innovation and new energy within the sector. "Retailers are finally realizing that they have to get their own personality back," says NPD chief industry analyst Marshal Cohen in the piece. "They are beginning to recognize 'you know what, we have to go back to who our core customer is and deliver on the promise.'"